A world without cotton would be a sad one, and it’s not likely to happen anytime soon. Yet, this scenario might make us love cotton more or inspire us to find alternatives. The loss of cotton as a global crop would have far-reaching consequences for human civilization.
7 Major Consequences of the No-Cotton Scenario
If cotton disappeared, seven major things would occur:
- Obviously, there will be no new cotton products – no clothing, furniture, or bedding made from cotton, no cotton oil, items such as coffee or tea filters, and, most importantly, no paper money as we know it.
- Prices of all other fabrics, especially natural fabrics, will at first rise significantly.
- All textile-based products will be more expensive, including clothing, furniture, bedding, and textiles used in the medical industry or as building materials.
- The prices of second-hand cotton clothes and other second-hand cotton products will rise as well, and you will treat your cotton goods as if they were made of gold.
- Polyester is the most dominant, relatively cheap, and available fabric. Regrettably, polyester will be the first substitute for cotton, rather than some natural fibers. In fact, to some extent, this process is already underway.
- Increasing efforts to produce more other natural fibers in the future and restructuring the textile industry.
- Unemployment in the cotton industry and a number of other related financial effects.
No-Cotton Scenario
This situation is conceivable in light of droughts and heat waves that might destroy cotton crops due to their high water requirements. But cotton can always be planted for the following growing season. Cotton shortages are more probable than cotton’s extinction from the face of the earth. Certain pests, such as the pink bollworm, American bollworm, and others, may cause substantial crop losses. There are available insecticides, and genetically modified cotton has resulted in a significant decrease in insecticide consumption.
Yet, global cotton production is being affected by climate change-induced severe temperatures, which could lead to an increase in pests and diseases.
Cotton shortages could have some similar consequences as cotton’s complete extinction, but to a lower degree and most likely not permanently.
Yet, if something atypical occurred and we no longer had any cotton (preferably without other larger difficulties, such as in the food industry), this would result in substantial changes.
Crucially, this would mean no cotton clothing, and it is difficult to conceive of some items being created from cotton replacements. This is especially difficult to comprehend in the case of underwear. This would also exclude denim and jeans, which are primarily produced from cotton fibers. Cotton is also a very popular choice for bedding and towels.
Significantly, cotton is used for medical and hygiene purposes: for wool balls, cotton rolls, cotton swabs, cotton pads, gauze, or bandages made from cotton. Tampons are usually made from cotton and rayon. Disposable menstrual pads and baby wipes usually contain cotton. So all these goods will be made completely from materials other than cotton.
Surprisingly, banknotes are mostly made from cotton. The Federal Reserve notes are composed of 25% linen and 75% cotton. This could mean that bills will be made from a different material or that credit cards or internet payments will be used more frequently, if not exclusively.
Cotton is an essential raw material in numerous industries and a popular fabric in the fashion industry. The cotton industry is an integral aspect of numerous global economies. Cotton supports 32 million farmers and more than 100 million families in 80 countries and five continents. The World Trade Organization (WTO) even introduced the concept of World Cotton Day in 2019, and the seventh of October is celebrated as World Cotton Day.
India is the largest cotton producer, followed by China. In India, for instance, the cotton industry is not the largest industry (that status has mining and quarrying), but it is still quite important because it directly employs 45 million people and indirectly employs 60 million people.
The United States is the world’s third-largest cotton producer, with Brazil coming in fourth.
As a result, if it were no longer possible to successfully grow cotton, cotton-dependent economies would suffer, and many people would be out of work.
Replacing Cotton
Together with polyester, cotton is one of today’s most common textiles. In the mid-1990s, synthetic fibers began to replace cotton. The demand for textiles skyrocketed over time, and cotton production couldn’t keep up. Cotton continues to play a large role in the fiber industry (approximately 22 percent of global fiber production in 2021).
The growing production of polyester, rather than cotton, has been crucial in meeting the rising demand for textiles. It’s growing more and more difficult to shop for, say, 100% cotton clothing or socks, for example, because more and more manufacturers are using polyester.
The production of cotton is reliant on cultivated land, favorable weather, and effective pest management. The cotton farmer, for instance, cannot immediately boost its supply in response to an increase in textile demand in the same way that the polyester producer can.
Therefore, if cotton disappeared, the textile industry would likely immediately increase the production of polyester and other synthetic materials.
However, there will be future efforts to produce more natural fibers similar to cotton. Polyester cannot be an adequate substitute for cotton, particularly because it can cause skin irritation. Furthermore, despite significant evolution, polyester’s temperature adaptability is inferior to that of natural fibers. Polyester production and consumption cause significant pollution. To be honest, cotton production isn’t great for the environment either. However, cotton is completely biodegradable and does not release microplastics like polyester. Polyester takes between 20 and 200 years to degrade.
There are several natural fabrics that could be used instead of cotton. These fabrics might be even better options for the environment, and some have properties that are superior to cotton. The cotton plant requires a lot of water and severely degrades soil quality, and it needs a lot of pesticides and fertilizers.
However, replacing a quarter of global textile production with a natural material similar to cotton is a difficult task that will take time. It is dependent on the natural conditions required for the production of that natural material. Meanwhile, we’ll most likely be wearing polyester underwear.
Possible Cotton Substitutes
Here are some possible substitutes for cotton in the “no cotton scenario”:
- Bamboo has many beneficial properties, including the ability to keep you cool in the summer and warm in the winter, as well as being hypoallergenic and breathable. It is biodegradable but does not require a lot of water, fertilizers, or pesticides to grow like cotton. Importantly, in the case of the “no cotton” scenario, it grows very quickly. It can grow in tropical and subtropical climates in Asia, Africa, Latin America, the southern United States, or central China. This is kind of similar to cotton since commercial cotton species are of tropical and sub-tropical origin. However, bamboo fiber production is typically similar to viscose production, and the eco-friendly process of bamboo fiber production implies higher production costs.
- Linen is also breathable, keeps you cool in the summer and warm in the winter, and is skin-friendly. Linen is made from flax. The flax plant requires far less water than cotton, and, more importantly, it grows quickly. Flax can grow in poor soil conditions. Linen is biodegradable as well. However, the flax plant grows best in a maritime climate with a constant alternation of sun and rain and plenty of wind, and this type of climate is only found in a few places around the world.
- Jute, like cotton, is easy to harvest and grow, with high production rates. It is also an environmentally friendly, biodegradable fiber and a low-cost, breathable, and skin-friendly material derived from the bark of the jute plant. It is suitable for agricultural packaging, bags, sacks, and rugs. Jute is also used in clothing, and while it lacks elasticity and creases easily, it can be very comfortable. It requires a humid and hot climate, and it is primarily grown in India, Bangladesh, China, and Thailand.
- Hemp fiber is another good option because it is breathable, cool in the summer, warm in the winter, hypoallergenic, durable, and biodegradable. Hemp fabric is derived from the cannabis plant, which requires little water and can even improve soil health. The fact that hemp produces significantly more fabric than cotton or flax on the same land is critical for the “no cotton scenario.” Although a nominal or legal distinction is frequently made between industrial hemp, which contains low concentrations of psychoactive compounds, and marijuana, hemp cultivation is not permitted in all states. Industrial hemp thrives in mild, humid climates.
- Wool is well-known for its temperature adaptability as well as being extremely breathable, stretchy, durable, and lightweight. Wool is also a biodegradable fiber source, but production in the quantities in which cotton is produced can hardly be achieved with wool or silk, for example. Because livestock management is involved in wool production, land use can lead to soil erosion and desertification, and wool production requires a significant amount of water.
- The most common type of rayon is viscose, which is soft, durable, and breathable. However, because of the harmful chemicals used in the manufacturing process, viscose has a bad reputation and is considered to be somewhere between synthetic and natural fiber. Viscose is manufactured from wood pulp (typically pine, beech, and eucalyptus), which must be dissolved in a pulp solution. After that, the pulp solution is washed and bleached.
- There are numerous other sources of natural fabrics. Fabrics made from pineapple, banana, coconut husk, ramie, and other natural fibers are available, but they all have limited production potential.
In the event of cotton extinction, production of all-natural fibers should increase, depending on production capabilities and climate conditions, but this will not be an easy process. Cheap and fast will probably be a priority, not environmental impact.